Free tool

Recurring Service Revenue Calculator

Project the 24-month revenue from your recurring service plans, including churn and growth.

If you sell maintenance plans, weekly cleanings, lawn care contracts, or any recurring service, you're sitting on a subscription business and most owners undervalue it badly. This calculator runs the compounding math: starting customers, monthly fee, churn rate, growth rate, projected over 12 and 24 months. Plus per-customer LTV so you know what you can spend to acquire one.

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  • Built for service businesses
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Quick startPick your industry to load real-world numbers

Your inputs

Edit any field, results update automatically.

Active customers on a monthly/quarterly/seasonal plan today.

If quarterly, divide by 3. If seasonal (lawn), use annual / 12.

$

Of current clients, what % cancel each month? Service businesses typically see 1-5%/month.

%

Net new sign-ups. If you currently sign 5/month and lose 2 to churn, this is 5 (not 3).

Marketing + sales effort divided by new clients. Service businesses typically $50-300.

$

Revenue minus direct cost (labor + materials) per visit. Recurring services typically 30-50%.

%

Recurring Service Revenue Calculator

Calculated November 7, 2026

Current recurring clients
80
Average monthly value per client
$95
Monthly churn rate (%)
2.5%
New recurring clients added per month
6
Cost to acquire one new client
$120
Gross margin per recurring job (%)
40%

Your results

MRR in 24 months

$14,521

Monthly recurring revenue at your current growth + churn pace

Current MRR$7,600
Current ARR$91,200
Cumulative revenue over 24 months$277,264
Customers in 24 months153
LTV per customer (revenue)$3,800
LTV per customer (gross profit)$1,520
CAC payback period3.16 months
LTV/CAC ratio12.67x

Run recurring billing on autopilot

Smarfle's Client Subscriptions + Recurring Work Orders auto-generate WOs on schedule, auto-bill via Stripe, and surface MRR/churn dashboards. Built for HVAC plans, weekly cleaning, lawn contracts, pest routes.

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How this calculation works

Recurring revenue compounds. The math: LTV (lifetime value) per customer = monthly fee / monthly churn rate. So a customer paying $95/month with 2.5% monthly churn has an LTV of $3,800 in revenue (about 40 months of expected tenure). At 40% gross margin, that's $1,520 in lifetime gross profit per customer. LTV/CAC ratio is the make-or-break metric for subscription services. Healthy: >3x. Below 1x = you're losing money on every acquisition. The default $120 CAC with $1,520 LTV profit = 12.7x ratio (excellent). The 24-month projection simulates each month: current customers, minus churn, plus new sign-ups, times monthly fee. Compounded across 24 months, even modest growth (6 new clients/month) becomes meaningful: 80 starting clients with 6 new/month at 2.5% churn ends at ~210 clients ($20K MRR) in 24 months. Most owners track only current MRR. The compounding view shows that the next 24 months of subscription revenue is often 10-20x the current monthly number.

Real scenarios

Find the persona closest to yours, then click to load those numbers into the calculator.

HVAC owner with 100 maintenance plans

$15/mo plan, 1.5% churn, 8 new sign-ups/month.

Current MRR $1,500. In 24 months: ~280 customers, ~$4,200 MRR. LTV per customer: $1,000. Plan revenue alone funds an additional tech.

Weekly residential cleaning

$440/month per client, ~3% monthly churn.

LTV per customer: $14,667 in revenue. CAC of $180 = 80x LTV/CAC. The unit economics are world-class, scaling is the only question.

Pest control with quarterly visits

200 customers, low churn, simple route economics.

Current ARR $96K. In 24 months: ~510 customers, $245K ARR. Pest control consistently has the strongest LTV/CAC in field service.

Smarfle

Run this in your business, not just in a calculator

These Smarfle features close the loop on what this tool surfaces. Built for local service businesses, used by HVAC, plumbing, electrical, cleaning, lawn care, and 40+ other trades.

Feature

Client Subscriptions

Stripe-integrated recurring billing on each client. Auto-charge cards monthly, surface churn, manage upgrades/downgrades.

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Feature

Recurring Work Orders

Auto-generate WOs on schedule (weekly, biweekly, monthly, quarterly). Tied to subscriptions so billing happens on completion.

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Feature

Maintenance Reminders

Auto-text + email reminders before each scheduled visit. Reduces no-shows and surfaces churn early.

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Frequently asked questions

What's a healthy monthly churn rate for service businesses?

Residential cleaning: 3-5%. HVAC maintenance plans: 1-2%. Lawn care annual contracts: 8-15% (seasonal cycle). Pest control: 1-3%. Commercial janitorial: 0.5-2%. The lower the churn, the higher LTV - and the more you can spend on acquisition without going underwater.

How do I actually calculate my churn rate?

(Customers who cancelled this month) / (customers active at start of month). If you started August with 100 active customers and 4 cancelled during August, your monthly churn is 4%. If your data is spotty, use total cancels in last 90 days / 3 / customers at start of period.

What's a good LTV/CAC ratio?

3x or higher is healthy. 1-3x means you're profitable but slow to scale. Under 1x means you're losing money on each new customer (the unit economics don't work). Service businesses with maintenance plans often see 5-15x LTV/CAC because services are sticky and CAC is low (referrals + Google).

Should I include trial / discounted first months?

Use the average steady-state monthly fee (after any first-month discount). Trial deals reduce LTV but typically improve sign-up conversion enough to be net positive. Track separately if you want precision.

What if I bill quarterly or annually, not monthly?

Convert to a monthly-equivalent. Quarterly $300 = $100/month. Annual $1,200 = $100/month. The math is the same regardless of billing frequency, just normalize to a monthly value.

How do I lower my churn rate?

Top three drivers in service businesses: (1) maintenance reminder workflow that pre-fills the next visit so customers don't have to think; (2) auto-charging the saved card so cancellation requires action (vs. just letting card expire); (3) a 'pause' option instead of cancel for seasonal customers.

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Go deeper: industry research & statistics, service pricing guides, and CRM by industry.

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